The holiday season has always been retail’s biggest stage, but this year it’s also its toughest test. Shoppers are cautious, competition is fierce, and every marketing dollar must prove its worth.
The National Retail Federation estimates that U.S. shoppers returned nearly $890 billion worth of merchandise in 2024. That amounts to about 14% of all retail sales. That staggering figure underscores a gnawing reality: consumers aren’t just buying more carefully; they’re buying more conditionally. They want to feel confident that what they purchase is worth it and that the brand behind it will stand by the product if it’s not.
Google’s Holiday Essentials report for 2025 reveals a finding worth paying attention to: 61% of U.S. shoppers say they’re being more selective because they’re worried about the future. That caution is reshaping how people shop and when they buy.
Impulse purchases are down. Research is up. Shoppers are validating decisions across multiple channels, from Search to YouTube to social media. They’re comparing prices, reading multiple reviews, and are looking for cues they can trust.
They’ve redefined what ‘value’ means into four specific values:
The holiday season is also stretching out. Half of shoppers now make purchases as early as October, and the digital ad landscape reflects it. Last year, Black Friday 2024 online sales hit $10.8 billion, and Cyber Monday reached $13.3 billion, both record highs.
That demand is encouraging, but it’s also driving up costs. As more brands compete for attention during the same few days, cost-per-click and cost-per-impression rise sharply. Smart marketers are adjusting by starting earlier, spreading their spend across the extended season, and saving only a portion of budget for peak days.
In short: start early, warm up audiences, remarket intentionally, and surge strategically.
1. Engage Earlier and Stay Visible
At least half of holiday shoppers are making purchases at any given moment between October and January. That makes visibility throughout the season essential; it’s not enough to be discovered only during Cyber Week.
Taking a cue from mega retailer Costco, Canadian fashion brand Aritzia leaned into this approach by promoting its popular Super Puff jacket months before the holidays. As Google pointed out in its report, using AI-powered campaigns across YouTube, Search, and Performance Max, it saw a 42% lift in Q4 ecommerce revenue.
Early engagement doesn’t just boost awareness; it builds familiarity and trust, which are two things shoppers crave.
2. Make Value Discoverable
If customers can’t find you, you don’t exist. Marketers should ensure their products are easy to discover, and that their message clearly communicates both seasonal offers and long-term value.
Google pointed out in its report that luxury home-goods brand Boll & Branch demonstrated how effective this can be. By showcasing full-bed bundles through Performance Max campaigns, it doubled its Cyber Weekend sales year-over-year and increased new-customer growth by 130%.
The takeaway? Optimize for what your customers actually search for. If they are looking for “gifts under $100” or “most comfortable sheets” or “gifts that last,” those are keyword phrases you can confidently optimize for.
3. Build Proof Across Search, Video, and AI
Shoppers aren’t just looking for the lowest price. They’re searching for proof. Search is still the number one way people confirm product quality, durability, and reputation. YouTube has become the top destination for reviews and product information, especially among younger buyers.
But consumers are also beginning to ask AI assistants from ChatGPT to Gemini and CoPilot to help them compare options, summarize feedback, or find the “best of” lists across categories. That means your content needs to be clear, credible, and consistent enough to earn trust with both humans and the AI models they use to discover you.
Authentic video content, transparent product pages, and strong review management strategies help reinforce brand credibility wherever and however shoppers choose to validate their decisions.
4. Deepen Loyalty to Reduce Returns
With nearly a trillion dollars in annual returns, retention matters more than ever. Customers who feel valued are less likely to second-guess a purchase. Use loyalty programs and personalized follow-ups to make shoppers feel special, not sold to. Google’s new Loyalty Mode feature allows brands to display member-only pricing right in search results, while integrations with Data Manager help link online engagement with real-world outcomes.
In a season when many shoppers are buying from multiple retailers, loyalty is the best form of insurance against churn, and returns.
5. Remove Friction Everywhere
Convenience closes deals. Simplify checkout, streamline mobile experiences, and make returns as effortless as possible.
Even major brands are rethinking how they blend online and offline experiences. Jeep, for instance, used AI-powered campaigns to fine-tune creative and targeting, driving a 133% increase in leads while cutting costs by 43%, according to Google’s report. The principle applies across categories: the easier it is to buy (and return), the more confident customers feel about buying in the first place.
This holiday season may be the first in which artificial intelligence truly reshapes retail strategy. AI is helping marketers connect data, content, and performance by helping predict demand, optimize spend, and generate personal creative in real time.
What a gift to marketers. Combining performance, demand gen and search campaigns see 22% more conversions at similar costs, according to Google. That’s not just efficiency; that’s momentum.
Beyond paid performance, marketers now face a new frontier: optimizing for AI discoverability. That means crafting helpful, high-quality content that LLMs can confidently summarize and surface to users who ask for product comparisons or gift recommendations. Trustworthiness, clarity, and consistency are becoming the new SEO.
But technology alone isn’t the differentiator. The advantage lies in how brands use AI to enhance humanity and free their teams to focus on storytelling, service, and empathy.
Consumers don’t want to be convinced. They want to be confident. They’re looking for brands that respect their research, reward their trust, and remove the friction that fuels returns.
This season, winning won’t come from deeper discounts or flashier ads. It will come from smarter planning, stronger proof, and simpler experiences that make people feel good about where and how they spend their money.
Remember, especially in uncertain times, marketing isn’t about pushing harder. It’s about serving better. And the brands that do that, who deliver real value, honor loyalty, and build confidence, will be the ones still celebrating when the lights come down in January.
Are you looking for help with your campaign strategy? Connect with me today.